Funds keep targeted on promoting development regardless of CBOT grain rally -Braun

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NAPERVILLE — Chicago grain and oilseed futures underwent a exceptional rebound following a pointy downturn spanning the July 4 vacation break, however speculators have been extra fascinated with persevering with the promoting as soon as costs broke final Tuesday.

CBOT corn futures had risen as a lot as 14% through the week ended July 12, however steep losses on July 12 put weekly features at simply over 1%, and cash managers marked their fourth consecutive week of heavier promoting within the yellow grain.

Their web lengthy fell by greater than 21,000 futures and choices contracts through the week to 151,174 contracts, the least bullish since October 2020. That was predominantly as a result of a discount in longs, although funds added a small variety of shorts.

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In 2022, cash managers’ corn web lengthy has been as massive as 384,101 futures and choices contracts – equal to 1.92 billion bushels – in late March. Their place was 208,799 contracts on July 13, 2021, which was the low for the 12 months.

CBOT soybeans additionally notched 4 days of features by July 11, rising as a lot as 9.3%, although they ended the interval by July 12 up simply over 2%.

Cash managers chopped their soybean web lengthy through the week by greater than 9,000 contracts, and it fell to 95,711 futures and choices contracts, the smallest since December. The shedding of gross longs outweighed a smaller spherical of short-covering, funds’ first brief discount in 4 weeks.

Open curiosity has notably declined since June as is seasonal, however it’s at multiyear lows throughout Chicago grains. Corn open curiosity in futures solely is on the lowest level for the time of 12 months since 2016, soybeans the bottom since 2013 and wheat since 2005.

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Cash managers by July 12 offered CBOT wheat for the eighth consecutive week on a 0.9% general rise in futures, which had been up as a lot as 16.5% within the interval.

Funds’ new web in need of 6,444 CBOT wheat futures and choices contracts, up from 42 every week earlier, is their most bearish since March 1, although open curiosity in futures and choices is now 22% lighter than on that date.

Cash managers’ web lengthy in CBOT soybean oil futures and choices fell to 18,877 contracts by July 12, their least bullish in precisely two years, and that compares with 24,929 every week earlier. Futures had risen solely 0.9% after max features of 9% within the week.

Soybean meal futures had additionally risen 9% as of final Monday, however they fared higher than different contracts Tuesday, ending the week by July 12 up greater than 3%. Cash managers modestly elevated their meal web lengthy for a fourth consecutive week, to 68,290 futures and choices contracts from 65,777 within the prior week.

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Mixed throughout U.S. grain and oilseed futures, cash managers’ web lengthy by July 12 fell to the bottom ranges since October as fears of a worldwide financial slowdown proceed rattling commodity buyers.

U.S. climate forecasts final week have been flipping forwards and backwards between dry and moist, additionally including some hesitancy for sellers. Corn and soybeans didn’t get probably the most ideally suited begin in lots of areas and a few crops nonetheless want rain, although the central a part of the nation together with Illinois and Indiana obtained showers over the weekend.

Within the final three classes, most-active corn futures rose almost 3%, soybeans have been principally unchanged, and CBOT wheat dropped 4.6%. The soy merchandise every added 0.5% within the interval. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her personal.

(Modifying by Daniel Wallis)